For Five Years, Heatwaves Soar in Lagos, But Sanwo-Olu’s 2025 Budget Favours Cars Over Climate Solution

A Climate Resilience for All analysis (2019–2023), led by Dr Larry Kalkstein, who passed away in November 2024, has issued a stark global warning regarding the torrential heatwaves in the world and Africa. The analytical report, contained in a press release exclusively made available to PIJAlance via email, lists Lagos among the world’s hottest cities, with its heat season stretching up to 214 days annually and an alarming rise in extreme heat episodes.

According to the analysis, Lagos consistently ranked sixth throughout the five-year research framework on 11 cities in Africa, with an additional highlight stating that its hot days occur anytime within that period.

According to Kathy Baughman McLeod, CEO of the NGO, “Extreme heat is taking a growing and significant toll on people’s health, causing illness and death, disrupting infrastructure, tourism, and work productivity, and straining healthcare systems—among many other impacts.”

She added, “Cities never designed for heat now face new heat shocks and stresses. Yet, the planning and response measures for heat are either nonexistent or woefully inadequate for the scale of this crisis.”

The analysis identified the earliest and latest days that reached 90°F/32°C at each location during these five years, showing the extent of the temperature thresholds in each city.

While heatwaves may naturally be difficult to mitigate, as reported by Nature, there are many ways to minimise their damning effects. But beyond Lagos State ranking sixth among the world’s hottest cities within a five-year window, the state is unprepared for what is to come in 2025.

For instance, several studies have found that waste heat from vehicles significantly warms urban areas, more so in denser, taller building zones, and this effect peaks around busy traffic periods. Lagos is home to millions of vehicles and industries, making waste heat and carbon emissions inevitable. While residents cannot be entirely stopped from using vehicles, the climate burden can be reduced through policies that promote renewable-energy-powered alternatives. Yet, despite this growing climate emergency, the 2025 Lagos State Budget contains no concrete plans to invest in renewable energy solutions capable of mitigating the heat generated by vehicles and other human activities.

Instead, the government is proposing a significant investment in conventional vehicle fleets: ₦18 billion allocated for new GAC cars, and another ₦11.7 billion for additional state vehicles.

In stark contrast, no direct funding was allocated toward solar energy, renewable public transport, or heat-resilient infrastructure—a critical omission in one of Africa’s hottest and most congested cities.

This prioritisation is risky as vehicles are major heat drivers in Lagos. A Clean Air Fund report formerly found that Lagos’ road transport sector contributes an estimated 43% of total air pollution, while road surfaces and emissions both fuel the urban heat island effect, increasing ambient temperature by up to 7–8°C in built zones compared to peri-urban areas.

A 2020–2024 growth in Nigeria’s registered motor vehicles rose from 3.75 million in 2015 to over 11.6 million in 2020, with continued growth thereafter.

Despite a dip in import spending in 2024 (14.3%), over 6,358 light vehicles were still sold in Nigeria last year, led by models like the Toyota Hilux at 27.6% share. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has always been purchasing vehicles despite the climate realities of Lagos begging for something else that is sustainable. In April 2021, the Lagos House of Assembly approved ₦4.42 billion for 355 vehicles across ministries, following Governor Sanwo-Olu’s request. By late 2022, the Governor also received and deployed around 100 cars for civil servants.

In early 2023, the state procured 260 new vehicles for the Lagos State Police, delivered under Sanwo-Olu’s administration. In July 2024, the year’s Lagos State Budget allocated nearly ₦100 billion for vehicle purchases, prominently including fleet upgrades.

These trends confirm Lagos’s rapid motorisation with the government in compliance to making it happen at a time when heat seasons are longer, more intense, and deadly.

Urban heat is driven by a warming climate, “the heat island effect”, caused by densely built infrastructure, limited green space and rapid urban migration that concentrates people and development in cities, CRA report notes.

The Lagos State Government needs solar buses, electric vehicles, or charging infrastructure; cool pavement initiatives to reduce surface heat; solar-powered public lighting to cut emissions; and green city planning to mitigate the heat island effect.

The government needs to pivot its budget priorities and shift over ₦20 billion in car procurement towards electric and solar buses to reduce emissions and ease urban heat. It also needs to enforce cool-pavement standards on all state projects to lower surface heat absorption; invest in solar energy for public buildings (hospitals, schools, and government offices) and enhance green infrastructure—parks, street trees, and reflective roofing—to improve resilience.

Read Also: What is causing Nigeria’s extreme heat?